NFL Wild Card Weekend - Road to Super Bowl XLVI Begins

While some people believe "the most wonderful time of the year" is in December, a lot of other people beg to differ and think it is January. That is because the NFL playoff season kicks off in the first month of the year and it is the start of the "elimination dance" to see who will play in the Super Bowl. This year, the Super Bowl is in Indianapolis and the home team Colts were bitten by the Super Bowl host team jinx (maybe it was more due to Peyton Manning missing the season) missing the playoffs and finishing the regular season with the league's worst record. Let's take a look at this weekend's Wild Card matchups between the "bottom eight" of the twelve playoff teams (the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens all have byes this weekend).


Cincinnati Bengals (Wild Card) vs. Houston Texans (AFC South Champs):
Congratulations to the Texans for making it to their first playoff foray. Their first trip will be a quick one. The Texans have one of the best offenses in the league and their defense vastly improved this season. But with Matt Schaub out and the Bengals coming into town with a balanced team themselves (and no pressure/expectations), I think the Texans will get upset at home. I'm not sure if Texans' RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson can show off their healthy talented skills. And Texans rookie 3rd string QB T.J. Yates has done well but the Bengals QB Rookie of the Year candidate Andy Dalton will outshine him. The Bengals minus (the ghosts of) Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and T.O. move on to the next round


Pittsburgh Steelers (Wild Card) vs. Denver Broncos (AFC West Champs):
The Steelers are coming into this matchup banged up. They will miss RB Rashard Mendenhall who is out for the post season with a knee injury and S Ryan Clark who is being benched in this game for precautionary health purposes. Big Ben (Roethlisberger) will be "toughing it out" at QB Sunday with a high ankle sprain. Pittsburgh will still prevail. I don't see the Broncos offense led by Tim Tebow scoring many points on (Steelers Defensive Coordinator) Dick LeBeau's defense. The Steelers themselves may not score many points but their skill and playoff experience should overcome being on the road and any Tebow "magic" that may be left. For those who like dealing with spreads, I wouldn't bite on the Steelers giving 8.5 points though.


Detroit Lions (Wild Card) vs. New Orleans Saints (NFC South Champs):
From my subjective point of view, I'm unhappy that these two teams face off against each other in the first round. I think they are both fun to watch! Both teams are somewhat similiar: high powered offenses and defenses that are not horrible but can be scored upon. But as you take a closer look the Saints have a few more weapons on offense, particularly at RB (what's up there Darren Sproles).  If the Lions have trouble running the ball, they may have big trouble in this game. Don't get me wrong; Lions QB Matthew Stafford can sling it with the best of them, especially when hooking up with WR Calvin "Megatron" Johnson. But Saints QB extraordinaire Drew Brees is the "Top Gun" this year and I'm sure last year's first round playoff exit is still fresh in his and his teammates minds. I pick the Saints to win this game which may break all kind of offensive playoff records on both sides. And as for the 59 point over/under, I'd say over might be a lock.


Atlanta Falcons (Wild Card) vs. New York Giants (NFC East Champs):
This is an interesting game. The Falcons is a dome team coming north in January to play the Giants. That usually spells trouble. I also often question the Falcons philosophy when it comes to their offense. They should get back to running the ball a little more. Overall, I really don't trust the Falcons. But I think they are going to lay it on the Giants. The Giants ended the season with two impressive victories over the Jets and Cowboys to win the NFC East. Everybody is back on the bandwagon. Truth is, the Giants are inconsistent in December and January. Yes they made a great run in 2007 to win the Super Bowl, but take that one season away and what do you have? Falcons will exploit the Giants defense and if they're smart, stop the Victor Cruz salsa express. Atlanta, also reminded by their early playoff exit last year, upsets the NFC East champs.

2011 NFL Preview - AFC Outlook

The 2011 NFL season has finally arrived! Here is my outlook for teams in the AFC:

AFC EAST

1.  New York Jets

Jets defense keeps the pressure on again this season. Mark Sanchez and the offense take another baby step towards opening up.  Rex Ryan finally gets his squad a division title and a home playoff game.

2. New England Patriots

Bill Belichick & company have done some retooling and this team still has the potential to reach the mountaintop. But I think this will be the beginning of the Tom Brady “window” closing.

3. Miami Dolphins

Great defense + questionable offense = a lot of heartache in South Florida. I see the Dolphins on the losing end of a lot of close battles. If Chad Henne and Reggie Bush step up the Fins could surprise the division.

4. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a few nice pieces here and there but can they “connect those dots”? If Ryan Fitzpatrick can mirror his triumphs from last season and if Shawne Merriman can capture his Chargers glory back, the Bills will compete for a higher position in the division.  Chan Gailey needs to find touches for C.J. Spiller.

AFC NORTH

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

The defending AFC champions will not miss a beat this season. Expect to see the same Steeler formula of tough defense and timely offense to secure Pittsburgh another division title.  One question about Dick LeBeau’s defense though: did the Packers expose a chink in the armor during the Super Bowl?

2. Baltimore Ravens

There’s a lot to like about the Ravens; great defense, potential on offense – they are primed to finally get over the Steeler hurdle. We know they will continue to have epic battles with their division rivals but I won’t believe in them going the distance until I see it. Negative whispers about Joe Flacco will grow into screams this season if the young QB doesn’t take it to the next level.

3. Cleveland Browns

Browns’ fans must be excited about their young budding team in 2011.  Colt McCoy showed he could play on the professional level last season and looks to progress more this year.  But with a new coaching staff in place, a lack of a true offseason and young players I don’t expect the Browns to excel this season. They will be an improved team though.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincy looks like they are totally in rebuilding mode. The team purged a few veterans, most notably Chad Ochocinco , and is looking to give fresh faces a chance to represent the organization. 2011 draft picks Andy Dalton and A.J. Green should see a ton of playing time. This could possibly be an old 2 – 3 win “Bungal” season.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans

I am not totally confident in picking the Texans to win the division; it is almost a pick by default.  The Texans are one of those teams that I don’t believe in their success until I see it. This talented offensive team added Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator to steward one of the league’s most porous defenses. There should be a vast improvement on that side ball. Mix that with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson & Arian Foster on offense and that should spell many victories for the Texans.  Will they live up to their potential?

2. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a difficult team to read with Peyton Manning’s neck injury; no one knows just how long he will be out of the lineup. I’m one to believe that even with a healthy Manning, the Colts are beginning to decline. His absence will only accelerate the Colts slide. Hopefully, he won’t miss many games.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

I was all ready to pick the Jaguars to win the AFC South and then they cut David Garrard. By no means was Garrard lighting up the league but I think this cost saving move just "cost" the Jags their season.  They still have good players on this team particularly Maurice Jones-Drew but I feel that Garrard was the right guy to lead the Jags to a division title. Hopefully rookie Blaine Gabbert will take over the reins soon and give Jacksonville the value they are looking for.

4. Tennessee Titans

Although the Titans have some gifted players on offense and defense, I think they have gone through too many changes in key areas (head coach, quarterback) to have a winning season. By no means do I think they will be doormats but I do foresee a bit of a struggle for them. Coming over from Seattle, Matt Hasselbeck looks to give the offense stability along with dynamic running back Chris Johnson. They’ll be competitive just not victorious.

AFC WEST

1. San Diego Chargers

Last year the Chargers led the league in offense and defense but failed to make the playoffs. That will not be the case this season. San Diego is the most talented team in the AFC West and this year they will benefit from it.  Phillip Rivers is as good as they come at the QB position and he’ll have Vincent Jackson to throw to all season unlike he did last year. The Chargers will miss Darren Sproles (now on the Saints) but I expect them to still make strides this year. They are championship contenders.

2. Oakland Raiders

I like the Oakland Raiders and I think they will build on their success from last season. A little stability for Jason Campbell should help him be more consistent on the field. The Raiders certainly are keeping their fingers crossed that Darren McFadden can repeat his on field performance from a season ago. While I don’t expect the Raiders to sweep the division again, I do expect them to battle for a Wild Card spot.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Defending AFC West champion Chiefs snuck up on a few folks last year; that won’t be the case this season. Jamaal Charles should have another outstanding season and like the Raiders, the Chiefs will probably battle for a Wild Card spot.  Although I can see a winning season from KC I think they will miss the post season this year.

4.  Denver Broncos

While I think holding on to Kyle Orton was the right move, I don’t think he will be able to steer the Broncos to a successful season this year. I like that the Broncos hired John Fox as their new head coach and I think he will help make Denver competitive.  Fox’s defensive brilliance should lift up an already talented defense that was decimated by injuries last year, particularly Elvis Dumervil who returns after missing the entire 2010 season. Also  rookie Von Miller should immediately help this defense.  The Broncos will make the division tougher than most anticipate as they should battle and finish near an 8 – 8 record.