2012 NFL Playoffs - Road to Super Bowl XLVII - Divisional Round

We are now down to the Elite Eight (the Divisional Round) in the NFL Playoffs and let us all hope that the games are better this weekend than they were last weekend. Outside of the Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Redskins game, Wild Card Weekend was a bit of a "Bore Fest". With a trip to the Conference Championships on the line and the inclusion of the top seeded teams, I think we will see more competitive and exciting games.

AFC DIVISIONAL MATCHUPS

 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos (- 9.5)

The Ravens (#4 seed) are riding into Denver high off of their emotional victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Though they didn't look their best, the Ravens still kept the Colts in check. Ravens RB Ray Rice uncharacteristically fumbled twice, something he just can not afford to do against the Broncos (#1 seed). Denver, who has been riding high in the "Mile High" themselves, come off of a bye and 11 straight victories. During that streak, led by MVP candidate QB Peyton Manning, the Broncos have won by at least a touchdown in each contest and has scored an average of 31 points a game. That spells trouble for the Ravens' defense which has been porous this season. Cold temperatures and an emotional lift surrounding the impending retirement of LB Ray Lewis may help the Ravens' defense but I think that Baltimore will need to run the ball a lot (and execute their short passing game) to limit Mr. Manning's touches. QB Joe Flacco & Co. had better take their sweet time out there on offense, unless of course, they are down quickly. When the Ravens' offense is right, it can have explosive games with Flacco. Also, this squad is a road playoff, battle tested team. But I don't think it's wise for them to get into a shootout with Denver. Besides, the Broncos defense is one of the most underrated in the NFL. The divisional round is hard to predict at times because of the teams coming off a bye and it's possible the week off my derail the Broncos stride. But I don't think the bye, the Lewis factor or anything else will get in Denver's way. The Broncos end the Ravens' season and Ray Lewis' career but they will not cover the 9.5.

 

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (-9.5)

The Texans (#3 seed) roll into Foxboro off of their Wild Card Round win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Texans did what they had to do to win that game but they weren't impressive at all. Houston is a talented team but something has gone awry with them starting with the Week 14 beatdown they endured at the hands of the Patriots (#2 seed). The Pats undressed the Texans on Monday Night Football, yet another high stakes nationally televised game that they wilted. That game prompted me to give them the nickname "SNL" for Saturday Night Live. SNL's original cast members were once known to be the "Not Ready For Primetime Players".  SNL has a chance to begin to ditch that nickname with a "revenge" win against the Patriots. Like Baltimore, Houston should rely on their run and short pass game to eat clock on offense. The less time New England QB Tom Brady has with the ball, the better for the Texans. Also I thought the Bengals ran successfully against Houston but didn't stick with it for some reason. I doubt Patriots' head coach Bill Belichick will let that opportunity/advantage slip away. Like the Ravens, when the Texans offense is clicking they can be very dangerous. But their switch seems to be "off" and I can't see how they will flip it "on" in New England. The Patriots have been vulnerable at home in the playoffs in recent years but I don't see them losing this week. "Live from New England, it's Saturday Night!" and the Not Ready For Primetime Players will hit the stage (even though it's actually Sunday). The Patriots will run RB Stevan Ridley wild and open up the play action to hit their talented receiving/tight end ensemble down field. Patriots win and cover.

 

 

NFC DIVISIONAL MATCHUPS

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The Packers (#3 seed) come into this game against the 49ers (#2 seed) after dusting off the Minnesota Vikings (who played their 2nd string QB due to Christian Ponder's injured arm) last week. The "backup" quarterback they will be facing this week though will be a little more prepared than Vikings QB Joe Webb was last week. Unlike Webb, 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick has taken several snaps this season. In fact Kaepernick isn't really the backup QB anymore; he has started the last eight games of the season for San Fran. Though he has had some struggles, Kaepernick has also looked quite dynamic at times. The 49ers have averaged 26 points a game since Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith behind center. The offense still relies on a steady run game with RB Frank Gore but has now opened up the downfield threat with WR Michael Crabtree. The Packers pass offense is as dangerous as ever with QB Aaron Rodgers leading the way. But the name of this game I think will be defense and the 49ers have one of the best units in the NFL. San Francisco's defense is stout; they play mean and they tackle well. If they get the Packers into a one dimensional passing offense, Green Bay could be in for a long day. Ultimately, I do think the 49ers defense will neutralize the Packers offense. The Packers defense will have to deal with that balanced Niners offense and I think San Fran will have some opportunities to score some points against them. This game could be close but it has the makings of getting ugly too. Niners rush into the NFC Championship game by sending home the Pack and they cover too.

 

Seatlle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

The Seahawks (#5 seed) fly into Atlanta soaring after their defeat of RGIII and the Washington Redskins in the Wild Card Round. Seattle has become the so called "sexy pick" of a lot of prognosticators to win the Super Bowl because of their tough defense, excellent run game and the unflinching leadership of rookie QB Russell Wilson. Wilson was the only rookie QB to survive Wild Card Weekend. But he and the "Hawks will face a Falcons (#1 seed) team who has a LOT to prove. Atlanta's quick exits out of the playoffs the last 3 years has placed doubts in the minds of scores of folks outside of the 404/770 area code. Despite their 13 - 3 record and home field advantage, many people expect the Falcons to nose dive again in these playoffs. I have to admit that I am one of those people. I took a chance on the Falcons last year and picked them to win Wild Card Weekend even though they had to go on the road to play the New York Giants. They flew north and laid an egg. I'm not jumping with them this time around. This team has good talent on both sides of the ball. Roddy White and Julio Jones are arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL. Out on routes with them is future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez. RB Michael Turner has seen his touches drop over the last couple of years but is still capable of getting the job done. QB Matt Ryan is a good quarterback but is he your championship QB? You rarely hear his nickname "Matty Ice" any more....... On defense, the Falcons also have some really good players like Sean Weatherspoon, John Abraham, Asante Samuel and Thomas DeCoud. But for some reason come playoff time, it doesn't happen for the "Dirty Birds". After seeing how the Carolina Panthers handled the Falcons this year, (they split games but the Panthers should have won the game in Atlanta early in the season) I think the Seahawks can beat them. Although Wilson is not exactly like Cam Newton, their attributes are similar. With the help of RB Marshawn Lynch, Wilson should be able to find some holes in the Atlanta D on play action. This game I think will be close. Boy, Atlanta has a lot of pride on the line and a huge monkey on their back. That monkey will get even bigger when the Seahawks win the "Battle of the Birds". Seattle wins outright and have the spread to spare.

 

The playoff intensity should really pick up this weekend as these matches will determine the Final Four. Will we see another Brady vs. Manning playoff matchup? Will the Seahawks and 49ers meet for the third time this season, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line? We shall indeed see but you better believe the Ravens, Texans, Packers and Falcons all have different ideas about the Conference Championships! Let's just hope these games truly are more entertaining than last week's set.

 

 









2012 NFL Playoffs - Road to Super Bowl XLVII - Wild Card Round

The NFL playoffs for the 2012 season ramps up this weekend. As normal under the current playoff format, twenty teams did not qualify for the post season and have been sent home to watch with the rest of us.  The Atlanta Falcons (#1 NFC seed), San Francisco 49ers (#2 NFC seed), Denver Broncos (#1 AFC seed) and New England Patriots (#2 AFC seed) all have received byes for Wild Card weekend and we will see them compete next week. That leaves us with eight remaining squads, ready to battle it out for the right to move on to the divisional round.

 

 

AFC WILD CARD MATCHUPS

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans (-4.5)
Classic matchup of teams heading in opposite directions. The Bengals (#6 AFC seed) come into the game winning 7 of their last 8 games. The Texans (#3 AFC seed) have lost 3 of their last four games and have looked pretty bad in a couple of those defeats. Worse for the Texans is that they lost the firm grip that they had on the AFC #1 seed; sliding to the #3 seed and forcing them to play Wild Card weekend. These teams faced off in the playoffs just last year and I picked the young upstart Cincy team to upset the Texans. This year, despite how poorly they have looked recently, I think the Texans will regroup and rebound to defeat the Bengals. The Bengals defense may be the most underrated in the NFL but the Texans should have enough offensive fire power and pride to put some points up. JJ Watt is a stud on defense for Houston but their backend could be vulnerable to Andy Dalton hooking up with AJ Green & Co. I still think the Texans will find a way at home to get some momentum and cover.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7)
This is a very compelling matchup for varies reasons but most notably it could be the last game or the start of the last charge for the Ravens (#4 AFC seed) future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis. All eyes will be on the Ravens to see what emotional impact Lewis' retirement announcement will have on the team. The Ravens, who came "oh so close" to going to the Super Bowl last year will have some pressure on them to get back to the AFC Championship game. The Colts (#5 AFC seed) who had the worst record in the league last year and started a rookie QB this year (Andrew Luck) wasn't expected to win but a handful of games this season. But to most of our surprise, the Colts banged out 11 wins with Luck running the offense and their head coach Chuck Pagano away from the team battling cancer most of the season. Pagano is now back and Indy can be a very dangerous team because they truly have nothing to lose. Outside of their locker room there is not much expectation on the Colts. Their offense can be hot and cold but the Ravens defense, even with Lewis, is "torchable". I could see the Colts pulling off an upset but I don't think they will. I will give this game to the Ravens because of their talent, experience and emotions for their undisputed leader (Lewis). But if Baltimore's offense doesn't click, which has occured too often, it could be a disappointing day for them. Ravens QB Joe Flacco's performance will be under scrutiny. Ray Rice and Ravens send a message at home and cover.

 

NFC WILD CARD MATCHUPS

 

 

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

One of the teams I'm most interested to see play these playoffs are the Packers (#3 NFC seed). The last three years they have been "miss, hit & miss". Knocked out in the 1st round three years ago, ran the table to the title as a wild card two years ago and last year was one and done again after just losing one game in the regular season. Green Bay has looked sharp at times and vulnerable at other times this season. Unfortunately for them, an early exit from the playoffs will start some louder talk about the validity of the current Packers teams. The whispers are already there about them getting "lucky" & "hot at the right time" during their Super Bowl run a couple of seasons ago. The Packers just lost last week to their opponent and division rival Vikings (#6 NFC seed) but I think it will be different this week. The Vikings beat the Packers in the comfort of their home dome with a playoff spot on the line. This week they play at frigid Lambeau Field and I have a feeling the Packers are ready to light it up. Minnesota is led by superhuman, and in my opinion league MVP, Adrian Peterson. The Vikings will be looking to kill the clock with Peterson and keep the ball out of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers' hands. But if the Pack jump on the Vikings early and often, Minny doesn't have the passing game to come back. Green Bay makes a statement and covers.

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins (+3)

RGIII vs. Russell Wilson - a dream matchup of rookie QBs who have absolutely dazzled this season. The Redskins (#4 NFC seed) come into this game riding high after defeating the Dallas Cowboys last week to clinch a playoff spot and the NFC East crown. That win also was their sixth straight, an improbable run after starting the season 3 - 6. The NFL overall #2 draft pick and Redskins QB Robert Griffin III has shown tremendous leadership as a rookie and has really shined on the field. His read option and play fake skills are magical to the eye and weary on the defenders knees and egos. The Seahawks (#5 NFC seed) have their own dynamo rookie QB in Wilson who was picked 75th overall in the NFL draft. Like RGIII, Wilson has shown tremendous leadership as a rookie and his play on the field has become more and more impressive with each passing game. But this game will come down to the biggest strength of the Seahawks which is their defense. Can the Hawks defense contain the Redskins #1 ranked rushing offense featuring rookie RB Alfred Morris? If they do, Wilson & Company on offense should do enough to win the game. Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch is a stud himself and should be able to do some damage against the Redskins defense and open up the play action for Wilson. Seattle travels across the country to FedEx Field, beats the Redskins and covers.

 

 

The "wild card" for this Wild Card playoff weekend are the number of rookie and 2nd year players in key positions. As great as the trio of rookie QBs who made the playoffs have played this year, would it be unrealistic to think that one, two or all three of them can bomb? Not really. And lets not forget that Dalton (and Green) for Cincy and Christian Ponder for Minny are just 2nd year players. How will they hold under the pressure?  Soon enough we will see but one thing is for sure: something that we all will predict will certainly and unquestionably not come to fruition. That's the NFL.



NFL Divisional Round - Road to Super Bowl XLVI

NFL Wild Card weekend showcased wins by all four of the home teams. The Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants all advanced to this weekend's NFL Divisional Round. All of these teams must hit road in hopes of crashing the now pristine playoff seed order. Lets take a look at the games.



Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots:
The Broncos shocked the world last weekend with their upset overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Broncos QB Tim Tebow completed less than half of his passes but made the ones he did connect on count. I think Patriots' Head Coach Bill Belichick will feel his best defense in this game will be his offense. I expect to see Tom Brady and crew to try blitz the scoreboard and force the Broncos to attempt to play catch up. This strategy should work and the Patriots will go on to the AFC Championship game. I wouldn't give the Broncos 13.5 points though.



Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens:
Texans come into this game riding high after winning their first playoff game in franchise history over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Bengals offense moved the ball early but the Texans defense never gave up the big play. The big question for this matchup is: can the Ravens make big plays against this Texans defense? They certainly have some weapons to do so, mainly RB Ray Rice. But on a few occasions this year, the Ravens offense has disappeared and Rice doesn't seem to get the touches he deserves. Though I am not thoroughly confident in this Ravens offense, I will give them the edge to win this game since they are at home and their defense is playing against a third string QB. Go with the Ravens but don't be shocked if the Texans somehow find a way.



New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers:
After defeating the Detriot Lions, a team who featured a potent offense, the Saints play a 49ers team who's strength lies in its defense. The 49ers also feature a good running game, which I expect to see a lot of  to try to keep Saints QB Drew Brees off of the field. Although the Saints offense may not run as smooth outdoors on the road as it does at home, I still expect them to put some points up. I think their defense will "bend but not break" against 49ers which will give the Saints the right to move on to the NFC Championship game.



New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers:
The Giants had an impressive home win last week against the Atlanta Falcons, not allowing their offense to score any points. That won't happen this weekend. The Packers do have a few things to worry about like the potential of being rusty after having had the bye and several of their star players missing the regular season finale as well. Also their defense has been porous at times and their offensive line is banged up.  But on a good note, WR Greg Jennings is reportedly looking healthy and is ready to return from his leg injury that has sidelined him for a few weeks. The Giants cleared a big hurdle by winning last week, albeit to a suspect Falcons team. As I mentioned last week, the Giants have a history of dropping stinkers late in the season (and post season) and this might just be the week we see it. I won't say the Giants have no chance because they have nothing to lose and played the Packers tough earlier this season, but if the Packers are clicking, forget it. I expect Aaron Rodgers to "discount double-check" the G-Men to death. Packers roll.

2011 NFL Preview - NFC Outlook

Here's my outlook on how things will shake out in the NFC:

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles definitely won the trade and free agent “off-season” in the NFL.  Now they have to win games on the field during the “real” season.  The Eagles were a talented team before their new acquisitions;  with the addition of their newbies, they should repeat as NFC East champs. But chemistry can be a funny thing……

2. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas was not as bad as their 6 – 10 record last season (hush Bill Parcells). After getting off to a bad start, the season snowballed into disaster territory low-lighted by a season ending injury to Tony Romo. The current Cowboy team seems to play better when expectations are not high which bodes well for them this season. Combining all of that with a “weaker” schedule and the Jason Garrett led Cowboys could make a lot of noise this season.

3. New York Giants
The G-Men have been devastated by injuries in the preseason. They also lost two of Eli Manning’s favorite targets (Steve Smith, Kevin Boss) to free agency. The Giants never seem to be on the radar for post season predictions but they have a knack for making themselves relevant.  This season I think that mountain may be too high to climb for them. Expect a bit more of a slip for New York.

4. Washington Redskins

Although Washington had a decent preseason, I don’t see them winning a lot in the regular season. The Redskins believe that they can win with John Beck or Rex Grossman at QB; almost everyone outside of their camp doesn’t share their enthusiasm. Mike Shanahan’s club should be competitive against their divisional foes but I don’t expect them to compete for the division title.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers

The Super Bowl defending champions are a very tough team to beat. They will win a bunch of games this year and will compete again in the playoffs. But the Pack are beatable; I already heard someone try to compare them to the Patriots of 2007, thinking they may run the table in the regular season. That’s not going to happen; they’ll even have a tough time winning the division.

2. Chicago Bears

Chicago won the NFC North last year and will be in the thick of it to repeat. The Bears have a championship caliber squad. They have a tough as nails defense; if they ever get that running game back in shape again and if Jay Cutler can live up to his potential – look out! The Bears could have a special season.

3. Detroit Lions

I agree with pretty much everything I’ve heard about the Lions this season: this will be an exciting team to watch, they will make more strides forward this year and they’ll probably fall just short of the postseason.  Hopefully Matthew Stafford will have a healthy 2011 season.

4. Minnesota Vikings
The fact that I’m picking the Vikings to finish last convinces me that the NFC North is probably the best division in the NFL. I think the Vikings have a good team. They debatably have the best running back in football (Adrian Peterson) and have added veteran QB Donovan McNabb. But the defense has lost some of its strut over the last couple of seasons and McNabb finds himself in another situation without a elite receiver. Vikings will win some but not enough to make the playoffs.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints

You figure the Saints have to be hungry this year after their untimely exit in the playoffs last season. New Orleans is still one of the most explosive teams in the NFL. Drew Brees is still a top flight QB and he still has a good amount of weapons. Expect to see the Saints battle to get the Lombardi trophy back.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Just like the Lions, The Bucs are a young exciting team on the rise.  Coming off a season in which they won 10 games but still missed the playoffs, I expect the young Bucs to come close to their unexpected success.  Josh Freeman, Legarrette Blount and Mike Williams could be the new “triplets”.

3. Atlanta Falcons

I know a lot folks may think I’m crazy, but I think the Falcons will take a step back this season. I don’t see them pulling out the close victories they did last year.  I like their new weapon on offense Julio Jones who they drafted in the first round this year.  He should help to open up the offense some this year but I don’t think it’ll be enough.

4. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are coming off of a bad season. They have a brand new coaching staff. They have a brand new rookie starting QB (#1 overall draft pick Cam Newton). Their defense still has some good players and they still have a decent running attack but I think this will be a transition year for Carolina.

NFC WEST

1. St. Louis Rams
See Lions. See Bucs. The Rams are similar to those two in being a young up and coming team. But unlike those two, St. Louis will win their division. Sam Bradford is one of the best young QB’s in the game and we should see him make more progress this year. Rams also may have the league’s most unsung defense. The Rams finished under .500 and missed the playoffs by one game last year. This season they make the playoffs and will be over .500.

2   Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals should improve from their disappointing 2010 season. They are counting on newly acquired Kevin Kolb to turn into the QB the Eagles thought he would be last year. Can Beanie Wells carry the load at RB? How will the defense fair after swapping in rookie Patrick Peterson and swapping out Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie? Larry Fitzgerald will help to make them competitive but I don’t expect to see them reach the postseason.

3. Seattle Seahawks

Defending NFC West champion Seahawks drew the ire of many after winning the division last year with a losing record and “earning” a home playoff game. They quickly hushed up their critics by defeating the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in the first round of the playoffs. I don’t expect the Seahawks to turn that magic this season.  It could be another losing season for the Seahawks but they won’t make the playoffs this time.

4. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have a new head coach (Jim Harbaugh) but will still start their old QB (Alex Smith). Many feel the source of the 49ers problems starts with Smith. Can Harbaugh pull out the talent in Smith? The 49ers still boast some nice pieces on offense (Frank Gore, Vernon Davis) and may have one of the league’s best defenders (Patrick Willis) but I don’t expect to see Joe Montana or Jerry Rice to walk through locker room door for them this season.