NFL Divisional Round - Road to Super Bowl XLVI

NFL Wild Card weekend showcased wins by all four of the home teams. The Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants all advanced to this weekend's NFL Divisional Round. All of these teams must hit road in hopes of crashing the now pristine playoff seed order. Lets take a look at the games.



Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots:
The Broncos shocked the world last weekend with their upset overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Broncos QB Tim Tebow completed less than half of his passes but made the ones he did connect on count. I think Patriots' Head Coach Bill Belichick will feel his best defense in this game will be his offense. I expect to see Tom Brady and crew to try blitz the scoreboard and force the Broncos to attempt to play catch up. This strategy should work and the Patriots will go on to the AFC Championship game. I wouldn't give the Broncos 13.5 points though.



Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens:
Texans come into this game riding high after winning their first playoff game in franchise history over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Bengals offense moved the ball early but the Texans defense never gave up the big play. The big question for this matchup is: can the Ravens make big plays against this Texans defense? They certainly have some weapons to do so, mainly RB Ray Rice. But on a few occasions this year, the Ravens offense has disappeared and Rice doesn't seem to get the touches he deserves. Though I am not thoroughly confident in this Ravens offense, I will give them the edge to win this game since they are at home and their defense is playing against a third string QB. Go with the Ravens but don't be shocked if the Texans somehow find a way.



New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers:
After defeating the Detriot Lions, a team who featured a potent offense, the Saints play a 49ers team who's strength lies in its defense. The 49ers also feature a good running game, which I expect to see a lot of  to try to keep Saints QB Drew Brees off of the field. Although the Saints offense may not run as smooth outdoors on the road as it does at home, I still expect them to put some points up. I think their defense will "bend but not break" against 49ers which will give the Saints the right to move on to the NFC Championship game.



New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers:
The Giants had an impressive home win last week against the Atlanta Falcons, not allowing their offense to score any points. That won't happen this weekend. The Packers do have a few things to worry about like the potential of being rusty after having had the bye and several of their star players missing the regular season finale as well. Also their defense has been porous at times and their offensive line is banged up.  But on a good note, WR Greg Jennings is reportedly looking healthy and is ready to return from his leg injury that has sidelined him for a few weeks. The Giants cleared a big hurdle by winning last week, albeit to a suspect Falcons team. As I mentioned last week, the Giants have a history of dropping stinkers late in the season (and post season) and this might just be the week we see it. I won't say the Giants have no chance because they have nothing to lose and played the Packers tough earlier this season, but if the Packers are clicking, forget it. I expect Aaron Rodgers to "discount double-check" the G-Men to death. Packers roll.

NFL Wild Card Weekend - Road to Super Bowl XLVI Begins

While some people believe "the most wonderful time of the year" is in December, a lot of other people beg to differ and think it is January. That is because the NFL playoff season kicks off in the first month of the year and it is the start of the "elimination dance" to see who will play in the Super Bowl. This year, the Super Bowl is in Indianapolis and the home team Colts were bitten by the Super Bowl host team jinx (maybe it was more due to Peyton Manning missing the season) missing the playoffs and finishing the regular season with the league's worst record. Let's take a look at this weekend's Wild Card matchups between the "bottom eight" of the twelve playoff teams (the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens all have byes this weekend).


Cincinnati Bengals (Wild Card) vs. Houston Texans (AFC South Champs):
Congratulations to the Texans for making it to their first playoff foray. Their first trip will be a quick one. The Texans have one of the best offenses in the league and their defense vastly improved this season. But with Matt Schaub out and the Bengals coming into town with a balanced team themselves (and no pressure/expectations), I think the Texans will get upset at home. I'm not sure if Texans' RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson can show off their healthy talented skills. And Texans rookie 3rd string QB T.J. Yates has done well but the Bengals QB Rookie of the Year candidate Andy Dalton will outshine him. The Bengals minus (the ghosts of) Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and T.O. move on to the next round


Pittsburgh Steelers (Wild Card) vs. Denver Broncos (AFC West Champs):
The Steelers are coming into this matchup banged up. They will miss RB Rashard Mendenhall who is out for the post season with a knee injury and S Ryan Clark who is being benched in this game for precautionary health purposes. Big Ben (Roethlisberger) will be "toughing it out" at QB Sunday with a high ankle sprain. Pittsburgh will still prevail. I don't see the Broncos offense led by Tim Tebow scoring many points on (Steelers Defensive Coordinator) Dick LeBeau's defense. The Steelers themselves may not score many points but their skill and playoff experience should overcome being on the road and any Tebow "magic" that may be left. For those who like dealing with spreads, I wouldn't bite on the Steelers giving 8.5 points though.


Detroit Lions (Wild Card) vs. New Orleans Saints (NFC South Champs):
From my subjective point of view, I'm unhappy that these two teams face off against each other in the first round. I think they are both fun to watch! Both teams are somewhat similiar: high powered offenses and defenses that are not horrible but can be scored upon. But as you take a closer look the Saints have a few more weapons on offense, particularly at RB (what's up there Darren Sproles).  If the Lions have trouble running the ball, they may have big trouble in this game. Don't get me wrong; Lions QB Matthew Stafford can sling it with the best of them, especially when hooking up with WR Calvin "Megatron" Johnson. But Saints QB extraordinaire Drew Brees is the "Top Gun" this year and I'm sure last year's first round playoff exit is still fresh in his and his teammates minds. I pick the Saints to win this game which may break all kind of offensive playoff records on both sides. And as for the 59 point over/under, I'd say over might be a lock.


Atlanta Falcons (Wild Card) vs. New York Giants (NFC East Champs):
This is an interesting game. The Falcons is a dome team coming north in January to play the Giants. That usually spells trouble. I also often question the Falcons philosophy when it comes to their offense. They should get back to running the ball a little more. Overall, I really don't trust the Falcons. But I think they are going to lay it on the Giants. The Giants ended the season with two impressive victories over the Jets and Cowboys to win the NFC East. Everybody is back on the bandwagon. Truth is, the Giants are inconsistent in December and January. Yes they made a great run in 2007 to win the Super Bowl, but take that one season away and what do you have? Falcons will exploit the Giants defense and if they're smart, stop the Victor Cruz salsa express. Atlanta, also reminded by their early playoff exit last year, upsets the NFC East champs.

2011 NFL Preview - NFC Outlook

Here's my outlook on how things will shake out in the NFC:

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles definitely won the trade and free agent “off-season” in the NFL.  Now they have to win games on the field during the “real” season.  The Eagles were a talented team before their new acquisitions;  with the addition of their newbies, they should repeat as NFC East champs. But chemistry can be a funny thing……

2. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas was not as bad as their 6 – 10 record last season (hush Bill Parcells). After getting off to a bad start, the season snowballed into disaster territory low-lighted by a season ending injury to Tony Romo. The current Cowboy team seems to play better when expectations are not high which bodes well for them this season. Combining all of that with a “weaker” schedule and the Jason Garrett led Cowboys could make a lot of noise this season.

3. New York Giants
The G-Men have been devastated by injuries in the preseason. They also lost two of Eli Manning’s favorite targets (Steve Smith, Kevin Boss) to free agency. The Giants never seem to be on the radar for post season predictions but they have a knack for making themselves relevant.  This season I think that mountain may be too high to climb for them. Expect a bit more of a slip for New York.

4. Washington Redskins

Although Washington had a decent preseason, I don’t see them winning a lot in the regular season. The Redskins believe that they can win with John Beck or Rex Grossman at QB; almost everyone outside of their camp doesn’t share their enthusiasm. Mike Shanahan’s club should be competitive against their divisional foes but I don’t expect them to compete for the division title.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers

The Super Bowl defending champions are a very tough team to beat. They will win a bunch of games this year and will compete again in the playoffs. But the Pack are beatable; I already heard someone try to compare them to the Patriots of 2007, thinking they may run the table in the regular season. That’s not going to happen; they’ll even have a tough time winning the division.

2. Chicago Bears

Chicago won the NFC North last year and will be in the thick of it to repeat. The Bears have a championship caliber squad. They have a tough as nails defense; if they ever get that running game back in shape again and if Jay Cutler can live up to his potential – look out! The Bears could have a special season.

3. Detroit Lions

I agree with pretty much everything I’ve heard about the Lions this season: this will be an exciting team to watch, they will make more strides forward this year and they’ll probably fall just short of the postseason.  Hopefully Matthew Stafford will have a healthy 2011 season.

4. Minnesota Vikings
The fact that I’m picking the Vikings to finish last convinces me that the NFC North is probably the best division in the NFL. I think the Vikings have a good team. They debatably have the best running back in football (Adrian Peterson) and have added veteran QB Donovan McNabb. But the defense has lost some of its strut over the last couple of seasons and McNabb finds himself in another situation without a elite receiver. Vikings will win some but not enough to make the playoffs.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints

You figure the Saints have to be hungry this year after their untimely exit in the playoffs last season. New Orleans is still one of the most explosive teams in the NFL. Drew Brees is still a top flight QB and he still has a good amount of weapons. Expect to see the Saints battle to get the Lombardi trophy back.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Just like the Lions, The Bucs are a young exciting team on the rise.  Coming off a season in which they won 10 games but still missed the playoffs, I expect the young Bucs to come close to their unexpected success.  Josh Freeman, Legarrette Blount and Mike Williams could be the new “triplets”.

3. Atlanta Falcons

I know a lot folks may think I’m crazy, but I think the Falcons will take a step back this season. I don’t see them pulling out the close victories they did last year.  I like their new weapon on offense Julio Jones who they drafted in the first round this year.  He should help to open up the offense some this year but I don’t think it’ll be enough.

4. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are coming off of a bad season. They have a brand new coaching staff. They have a brand new rookie starting QB (#1 overall draft pick Cam Newton). Their defense still has some good players and they still have a decent running attack but I think this will be a transition year for Carolina.

NFC WEST

1. St. Louis Rams
See Lions. See Bucs. The Rams are similar to those two in being a young up and coming team. But unlike those two, St. Louis will win their division. Sam Bradford is one of the best young QB’s in the game and we should see him make more progress this year. Rams also may have the league’s most unsung defense. The Rams finished under .500 and missed the playoffs by one game last year. This season they make the playoffs and will be over .500.

2   Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals should improve from their disappointing 2010 season. They are counting on newly acquired Kevin Kolb to turn into the QB the Eagles thought he would be last year. Can Beanie Wells carry the load at RB? How will the defense fair after swapping in rookie Patrick Peterson and swapping out Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie? Larry Fitzgerald will help to make them competitive but I don’t expect to see them reach the postseason.

3. Seattle Seahawks

Defending NFC West champion Seahawks drew the ire of many after winning the division last year with a losing record and “earning” a home playoff game. They quickly hushed up their critics by defeating the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in the first round of the playoffs. I don’t expect the Seahawks to turn that magic this season.  It could be another losing season for the Seahawks but they won’t make the playoffs this time.

4. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have a new head coach (Jim Harbaugh) but will still start their old QB (Alex Smith). Many feel the source of the 49ers problems starts with Smith. Can Harbaugh pull out the talent in Smith? The 49ers still boast some nice pieces on offense (Frank Gore, Vernon Davis) and may have one of the league’s best defenders (Patrick Willis) but I don’t expect to see Joe Montana or Jerry Rice to walk through locker room door for them this season.