2012 NFL Playoffs - Road to Super Bowl XLVII - Divisional Round

We are now down to the Elite Eight (the Divisional Round) in the NFL Playoffs and let us all hope that the games are better this weekend than they were last weekend. Outside of the Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Redskins game, Wild Card Weekend was a bit of a "Bore Fest". With a trip to the Conference Championships on the line and the inclusion of the top seeded teams, I think we will see more competitive and exciting games.

AFC DIVISIONAL MATCHUPS

 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos (- 9.5)

The Ravens (#4 seed) are riding into Denver high off of their emotional victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Though they didn't look their best, the Ravens still kept the Colts in check. Ravens RB Ray Rice uncharacteristically fumbled twice, something he just can not afford to do against the Broncos (#1 seed). Denver, who has been riding high in the "Mile High" themselves, come off of a bye and 11 straight victories. During that streak, led by MVP candidate QB Peyton Manning, the Broncos have won by at least a touchdown in each contest and has scored an average of 31 points a game. That spells trouble for the Ravens' defense which has been porous this season. Cold temperatures and an emotional lift surrounding the impending retirement of LB Ray Lewis may help the Ravens' defense but I think that Baltimore will need to run the ball a lot (and execute their short passing game) to limit Mr. Manning's touches. QB Joe Flacco & Co. had better take their sweet time out there on offense, unless of course, they are down quickly. When the Ravens' offense is right, it can have explosive games with Flacco. Also, this squad is a road playoff, battle tested team. But I don't think it's wise for them to get into a shootout with Denver. Besides, the Broncos defense is one of the most underrated in the NFL. The divisional round is hard to predict at times because of the teams coming off a bye and it's possible the week off my derail the Broncos stride. But I don't think the bye, the Lewis factor or anything else will get in Denver's way. The Broncos end the Ravens' season and Ray Lewis' career but they will not cover the 9.5.

 

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (-9.5)

The Texans (#3 seed) roll into Foxboro off of their Wild Card Round win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Texans did what they had to do to win that game but they weren't impressive at all. Houston is a talented team but something has gone awry with them starting with the Week 14 beatdown they endured at the hands of the Patriots (#2 seed). The Pats undressed the Texans on Monday Night Football, yet another high stakes nationally televised game that they wilted. That game prompted me to give them the nickname "SNL" for Saturday Night Live. SNL's original cast members were once known to be the "Not Ready For Primetime Players".  SNL has a chance to begin to ditch that nickname with a "revenge" win against the Patriots. Like Baltimore, Houston should rely on their run and short pass game to eat clock on offense. The less time New England QB Tom Brady has with the ball, the better for the Texans. Also I thought the Bengals ran successfully against Houston but didn't stick with it for some reason. I doubt Patriots' head coach Bill Belichick will let that opportunity/advantage slip away. Like the Ravens, when the Texans offense is clicking they can be very dangerous. But their switch seems to be "off" and I can't see how they will flip it "on" in New England. The Patriots have been vulnerable at home in the playoffs in recent years but I don't see them losing this week. "Live from New England, it's Saturday Night!" and the Not Ready For Primetime Players will hit the stage (even though it's actually Sunday). The Patriots will run RB Stevan Ridley wild and open up the play action to hit their talented receiving/tight end ensemble down field. Patriots win and cover.

 

 

NFC DIVISIONAL MATCHUPS

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The Packers (#3 seed) come into this game against the 49ers (#2 seed) after dusting off the Minnesota Vikings (who played their 2nd string QB due to Christian Ponder's injured arm) last week. The "backup" quarterback they will be facing this week though will be a little more prepared than Vikings QB Joe Webb was last week. Unlike Webb, 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick has taken several snaps this season. In fact Kaepernick isn't really the backup QB anymore; he has started the last eight games of the season for San Fran. Though he has had some struggles, Kaepernick has also looked quite dynamic at times. The 49ers have averaged 26 points a game since Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith behind center. The offense still relies on a steady run game with RB Frank Gore but has now opened up the downfield threat with WR Michael Crabtree. The Packers pass offense is as dangerous as ever with QB Aaron Rodgers leading the way. But the name of this game I think will be defense and the 49ers have one of the best units in the NFL. San Francisco's defense is stout; they play mean and they tackle well. If they get the Packers into a one dimensional passing offense, Green Bay could be in for a long day. Ultimately, I do think the 49ers defense will neutralize the Packers offense. The Packers defense will have to deal with that balanced Niners offense and I think San Fran will have some opportunities to score some points against them. This game could be close but it has the makings of getting ugly too. Niners rush into the NFC Championship game by sending home the Pack and they cover too.

 

Seatlle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

The Seahawks (#5 seed) fly into Atlanta soaring after their defeat of RGIII and the Washington Redskins in the Wild Card Round. Seattle has become the so called "sexy pick" of a lot of prognosticators to win the Super Bowl because of their tough defense, excellent run game and the unflinching leadership of rookie QB Russell Wilson. Wilson was the only rookie QB to survive Wild Card Weekend. But he and the "Hawks will face a Falcons (#1 seed) team who has a LOT to prove. Atlanta's quick exits out of the playoffs the last 3 years has placed doubts in the minds of scores of folks outside of the 404/770 area code. Despite their 13 - 3 record and home field advantage, many people expect the Falcons to nose dive again in these playoffs. I have to admit that I am one of those people. I took a chance on the Falcons last year and picked them to win Wild Card Weekend even though they had to go on the road to play the New York Giants. They flew north and laid an egg. I'm not jumping with them this time around. This team has good talent on both sides of the ball. Roddy White and Julio Jones are arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL. Out on routes with them is future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez. RB Michael Turner has seen his touches drop over the last couple of years but is still capable of getting the job done. QB Matt Ryan is a good quarterback but is he your championship QB? You rarely hear his nickname "Matty Ice" any more....... On defense, the Falcons also have some really good players like Sean Weatherspoon, John Abraham, Asante Samuel and Thomas DeCoud. But for some reason come playoff time, it doesn't happen for the "Dirty Birds". After seeing how the Carolina Panthers handled the Falcons this year, (they split games but the Panthers should have won the game in Atlanta early in the season) I think the Seahawks can beat them. Although Wilson is not exactly like Cam Newton, their attributes are similar. With the help of RB Marshawn Lynch, Wilson should be able to find some holes in the Atlanta D on play action. This game I think will be close. Boy, Atlanta has a lot of pride on the line and a huge monkey on their back. That monkey will get even bigger when the Seahawks win the "Battle of the Birds". Seattle wins outright and have the spread to spare.

 

The playoff intensity should really pick up this weekend as these matches will determine the Final Four. Will we see another Brady vs. Manning playoff matchup? Will the Seahawks and 49ers meet for the third time this season, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line? We shall indeed see but you better believe the Ravens, Texans, Packers and Falcons all have different ideas about the Conference Championships! Let's just hope these games truly are more entertaining than last week's set.

 

 









2012 NFL Playoffs - Road to Super Bowl XLVII - Wild Card Round

The NFL playoffs for the 2012 season ramps up this weekend. As normal under the current playoff format, twenty teams did not qualify for the post season and have been sent home to watch with the rest of us.  The Atlanta Falcons (#1 NFC seed), San Francisco 49ers (#2 NFC seed), Denver Broncos (#1 AFC seed) and New England Patriots (#2 AFC seed) all have received byes for Wild Card weekend and we will see them compete next week. That leaves us with eight remaining squads, ready to battle it out for the right to move on to the divisional round.

 

 

AFC WILD CARD MATCHUPS

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans (-4.5)
Classic matchup of teams heading in opposite directions. The Bengals (#6 AFC seed) come into the game winning 7 of their last 8 games. The Texans (#3 AFC seed) have lost 3 of their last four games and have looked pretty bad in a couple of those defeats. Worse for the Texans is that they lost the firm grip that they had on the AFC #1 seed; sliding to the #3 seed and forcing them to play Wild Card weekend. These teams faced off in the playoffs just last year and I picked the young upstart Cincy team to upset the Texans. This year, despite how poorly they have looked recently, I think the Texans will regroup and rebound to defeat the Bengals. The Bengals defense may be the most underrated in the NFL but the Texans should have enough offensive fire power and pride to put some points up. JJ Watt is a stud on defense for Houston but their backend could be vulnerable to Andy Dalton hooking up with AJ Green & Co. I still think the Texans will find a way at home to get some momentum and cover.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7)
This is a very compelling matchup for varies reasons but most notably it could be the last game or the start of the last charge for the Ravens (#4 AFC seed) future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis. All eyes will be on the Ravens to see what emotional impact Lewis' retirement announcement will have on the team. The Ravens, who came "oh so close" to going to the Super Bowl last year will have some pressure on them to get back to the AFC Championship game. The Colts (#5 AFC seed) who had the worst record in the league last year and started a rookie QB this year (Andrew Luck) wasn't expected to win but a handful of games this season. But to most of our surprise, the Colts banged out 11 wins with Luck running the offense and their head coach Chuck Pagano away from the team battling cancer most of the season. Pagano is now back and Indy can be a very dangerous team because they truly have nothing to lose. Outside of their locker room there is not much expectation on the Colts. Their offense can be hot and cold but the Ravens defense, even with Lewis, is "torchable". I could see the Colts pulling off an upset but I don't think they will. I will give this game to the Ravens because of their talent, experience and emotions for their undisputed leader (Lewis). But if Baltimore's offense doesn't click, which has occured too often, it could be a disappointing day for them. Ravens QB Joe Flacco's performance will be under scrutiny. Ray Rice and Ravens send a message at home and cover.

 

NFC WILD CARD MATCHUPS

 

 

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

One of the teams I'm most interested to see play these playoffs are the Packers (#3 NFC seed). The last three years they have been "miss, hit & miss". Knocked out in the 1st round three years ago, ran the table to the title as a wild card two years ago and last year was one and done again after just losing one game in the regular season. Green Bay has looked sharp at times and vulnerable at other times this season. Unfortunately for them, an early exit from the playoffs will start some louder talk about the validity of the current Packers teams. The whispers are already there about them getting "lucky" & "hot at the right time" during their Super Bowl run a couple of seasons ago. The Packers just lost last week to their opponent and division rival Vikings (#6 NFC seed) but I think it will be different this week. The Vikings beat the Packers in the comfort of their home dome with a playoff spot on the line. This week they play at frigid Lambeau Field and I have a feeling the Packers are ready to light it up. Minnesota is led by superhuman, and in my opinion league MVP, Adrian Peterson. The Vikings will be looking to kill the clock with Peterson and keep the ball out of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers' hands. But if the Pack jump on the Vikings early and often, Minny doesn't have the passing game to come back. Green Bay makes a statement and covers.

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins (+3)

RGIII vs. Russell Wilson - a dream matchup of rookie QBs who have absolutely dazzled this season. The Redskins (#4 NFC seed) come into this game riding high after defeating the Dallas Cowboys last week to clinch a playoff spot and the NFC East crown. That win also was their sixth straight, an improbable run after starting the season 3 - 6. The NFL overall #2 draft pick and Redskins QB Robert Griffin III has shown tremendous leadership as a rookie and has really shined on the field. His read option and play fake skills are magical to the eye and weary on the defenders knees and egos. The Seahawks (#5 NFC seed) have their own dynamo rookie QB in Wilson who was picked 75th overall in the NFL draft. Like RGIII, Wilson has shown tremendous leadership as a rookie and his play on the field has become more and more impressive with each passing game. But this game will come down to the biggest strength of the Seahawks which is their defense. Can the Hawks defense contain the Redskins #1 ranked rushing offense featuring rookie RB Alfred Morris? If they do, Wilson & Company on offense should do enough to win the game. Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch is a stud himself and should be able to do some damage against the Redskins defense and open up the play action for Wilson. Seattle travels across the country to FedEx Field, beats the Redskins and covers.

 

 

The "wild card" for this Wild Card playoff weekend are the number of rookie and 2nd year players in key positions. As great as the trio of rookie QBs who made the playoffs have played this year, would it be unrealistic to think that one, two or all three of them can bomb? Not really. And lets not forget that Dalton (and Green) for Cincy and Christian Ponder for Minny are just 2nd year players. How will they hold under the pressure?  Soon enough we will see but one thing is for sure: something that we all will predict will certainly and unquestionably not come to fruition. That's the NFL.



NFL Final Four - AFC/NFC Championship - Road To Super Bowl XLVI

After the first seven games of the NFL playoffs, the seeding for the teams remained in order. Every home team won their games, even the San Francisco 49ers who was a rare home underdog. But in the eighth game, there was a bit of a shocker. The defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers were upset by the  New York Giants. The number one seed in the NFC and the best team in the NFL was suddenly "one and done".  That loss obviously guarantees that we will have a new Super Bowl champ. Lets take a look at AFC and NFC Championship games which will determine the two teams who will fight to claim the Lombardi Trophy.


Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots:
This should be a good game. You have the Ravens with a prolific defense and inconsistent offense matched up with the Patriots with a prolific offense and a suspect defense. I think a big factor here will be whether the Ravens will be able to exploit the weakness of the Patriots defense. As much as I respect Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed and company on defense, I think the Patriots will score against them. The Patriots will try to light the scoreboard up just like last week but for different reasons. Last week it was to foil a Denver Broncos offense which would have an issue trying to overcome a large deficit. This week, it will be to take the game out of its defense's hands. Even with that thought, I still expect to see Bill Belichick come up with a scheme to rattle Joe Flacco. A couple of seasons ago the Ravens went up to Foxboro and spanked the Pats in the playoffs. I think New England will get their revenge this year and make it back to the Super Bowl.


New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers:
The Giants have truly made me look bad in these playoffs. I have been their harshest critic. Even though the Packers last week played a tremendously sloppy game with turnovers, dropped passes & missed throws, I still give credit to the Giants for going into Green Bay and taking that game. When the 49ers beat the Saints last week, I automatically thought of this NFC Championship game. My first thoughts was the the winner of the Packers vs. Giants would beat the 49ers. The Giants almost pulled off a victory in San Francisco earlier in the year and I like their confidence as a team. As the days of this week started passing by, my thoughts started to change. I like what the 49ers do on defense. If they are smart and have learned anything about the Giants, they will pressure Eli Manning to the hilt. On offense, though I don't trust Alex Smith as much as Aaron Rodgers, I think the 49ers philosophy may be the right approach against the Giants defense. The Giants defensive strength is their pass rush. The 49ers can mitigate any damage by the Giants pass rush by running the ball, which they do well. Smith is going to have to abuse that Giants secondary though. Play action will be key for Smith but he's going to have to connect with his guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Giants won this game but I still think they have that stinker in their back pocket. I want to see if the Giants can make me look bad once again. The 49ers miraculously makes it to the Super Bowl in Jim Harbaugh's first season as head coach.

NFL Divisional Round - Road to Super Bowl XLVI

NFL Wild Card weekend showcased wins by all four of the home teams. The Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants all advanced to this weekend's NFL Divisional Round. All of these teams must hit road in hopes of crashing the now pristine playoff seed order. Lets take a look at the games.



Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots:
The Broncos shocked the world last weekend with their upset overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Broncos QB Tim Tebow completed less than half of his passes but made the ones he did connect on count. I think Patriots' Head Coach Bill Belichick will feel his best defense in this game will be his offense. I expect to see Tom Brady and crew to try blitz the scoreboard and force the Broncos to attempt to play catch up. This strategy should work and the Patriots will go on to the AFC Championship game. I wouldn't give the Broncos 13.5 points though.



Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens:
Texans come into this game riding high after winning their first playoff game in franchise history over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Bengals offense moved the ball early but the Texans defense never gave up the big play. The big question for this matchup is: can the Ravens make big plays against this Texans defense? They certainly have some weapons to do so, mainly RB Ray Rice. But on a few occasions this year, the Ravens offense has disappeared and Rice doesn't seem to get the touches he deserves. Though I am not thoroughly confident in this Ravens offense, I will give them the edge to win this game since they are at home and their defense is playing against a third string QB. Go with the Ravens but don't be shocked if the Texans somehow find a way.



New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers:
After defeating the Detriot Lions, a team who featured a potent offense, the Saints play a 49ers team who's strength lies in its defense. The 49ers also feature a good running game, which I expect to see a lot of  to try to keep Saints QB Drew Brees off of the field. Although the Saints offense may not run as smooth outdoors on the road as it does at home, I still expect them to put some points up. I think their defense will "bend but not break" against 49ers which will give the Saints the right to move on to the NFC Championship game.



New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers:
The Giants had an impressive home win last week against the Atlanta Falcons, not allowing their offense to score any points. That won't happen this weekend. The Packers do have a few things to worry about like the potential of being rusty after having had the bye and several of their star players missing the regular season finale as well. Also their defense has been porous at times and their offensive line is banged up.  But on a good note, WR Greg Jennings is reportedly looking healthy and is ready to return from his leg injury that has sidelined him for a few weeks. The Giants cleared a big hurdle by winning last week, albeit to a suspect Falcons team. As I mentioned last week, the Giants have a history of dropping stinkers late in the season (and post season) and this might just be the week we see it. I won't say the Giants have no chance because they have nothing to lose and played the Packers tough earlier this season, but if the Packers are clicking, forget it. I expect Aaron Rodgers to "discount double-check" the G-Men to death. Packers roll.

NFL Wild Card Weekend - Road to Super Bowl XLVI Begins

While some people believe "the most wonderful time of the year" is in December, a lot of other people beg to differ and think it is January. That is because the NFL playoff season kicks off in the first month of the year and it is the start of the "elimination dance" to see who will play in the Super Bowl. This year, the Super Bowl is in Indianapolis and the home team Colts were bitten by the Super Bowl host team jinx (maybe it was more due to Peyton Manning missing the season) missing the playoffs and finishing the regular season with the league's worst record. Let's take a look at this weekend's Wild Card matchups between the "bottom eight" of the twelve playoff teams (the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens all have byes this weekend).


Cincinnati Bengals (Wild Card) vs. Houston Texans (AFC South Champs):
Congratulations to the Texans for making it to their first playoff foray. Their first trip will be a quick one. The Texans have one of the best offenses in the league and their defense vastly improved this season. But with Matt Schaub out and the Bengals coming into town with a balanced team themselves (and no pressure/expectations), I think the Texans will get upset at home. I'm not sure if Texans' RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson can show off their healthy talented skills. And Texans rookie 3rd string QB T.J. Yates has done well but the Bengals QB Rookie of the Year candidate Andy Dalton will outshine him. The Bengals minus (the ghosts of) Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and T.O. move on to the next round


Pittsburgh Steelers (Wild Card) vs. Denver Broncos (AFC West Champs):
The Steelers are coming into this matchup banged up. They will miss RB Rashard Mendenhall who is out for the post season with a knee injury and S Ryan Clark who is being benched in this game for precautionary health purposes. Big Ben (Roethlisberger) will be "toughing it out" at QB Sunday with a high ankle sprain. Pittsburgh will still prevail. I don't see the Broncos offense led by Tim Tebow scoring many points on (Steelers Defensive Coordinator) Dick LeBeau's defense. The Steelers themselves may not score many points but their skill and playoff experience should overcome being on the road and any Tebow "magic" that may be left. For those who like dealing with spreads, I wouldn't bite on the Steelers giving 8.5 points though.


Detroit Lions (Wild Card) vs. New Orleans Saints (NFC South Champs):
From my subjective point of view, I'm unhappy that these two teams face off against each other in the first round. I think they are both fun to watch! Both teams are somewhat similiar: high powered offenses and defenses that are not horrible but can be scored upon. But as you take a closer look the Saints have a few more weapons on offense, particularly at RB (what's up there Darren Sproles).  If the Lions have trouble running the ball, they may have big trouble in this game. Don't get me wrong; Lions QB Matthew Stafford can sling it with the best of them, especially when hooking up with WR Calvin "Megatron" Johnson. But Saints QB extraordinaire Drew Brees is the "Top Gun" this year and I'm sure last year's first round playoff exit is still fresh in his and his teammates minds. I pick the Saints to win this game which may break all kind of offensive playoff records on both sides. And as for the 59 point over/under, I'd say over might be a lock.


Atlanta Falcons (Wild Card) vs. New York Giants (NFC East Champs):
This is an interesting game. The Falcons is a dome team coming north in January to play the Giants. That usually spells trouble. I also often question the Falcons philosophy when it comes to their offense. They should get back to running the ball a little more. Overall, I really don't trust the Falcons. But I think they are going to lay it on the Giants. The Giants ended the season with two impressive victories over the Jets and Cowboys to win the NFC East. Everybody is back on the bandwagon. Truth is, the Giants are inconsistent in December and January. Yes they made a great run in 2007 to win the Super Bowl, but take that one season away and what do you have? Falcons will exploit the Giants defense and if they're smart, stop the Victor Cruz salsa express. Atlanta, also reminded by their early playoff exit last year, upsets the NFC East champs.

2011 NFL Preview - AFC Outlook

The 2011 NFL season has finally arrived! Here is my outlook for teams in the AFC:

AFC EAST

1.  New York Jets

Jets defense keeps the pressure on again this season. Mark Sanchez and the offense take another baby step towards opening up.  Rex Ryan finally gets his squad a division title and a home playoff game.

2. New England Patriots

Bill Belichick & company have done some retooling and this team still has the potential to reach the mountaintop. But I think this will be the beginning of the Tom Brady “window” closing.

3. Miami Dolphins

Great defense + questionable offense = a lot of heartache in South Florida. I see the Dolphins on the losing end of a lot of close battles. If Chad Henne and Reggie Bush step up the Fins could surprise the division.

4. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a few nice pieces here and there but can they “connect those dots”? If Ryan Fitzpatrick can mirror his triumphs from last season and if Shawne Merriman can capture his Chargers glory back, the Bills will compete for a higher position in the division.  Chan Gailey needs to find touches for C.J. Spiller.

AFC NORTH

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

The defending AFC champions will not miss a beat this season. Expect to see the same Steeler formula of tough defense and timely offense to secure Pittsburgh another division title.  One question about Dick LeBeau’s defense though: did the Packers expose a chink in the armor during the Super Bowl?

2. Baltimore Ravens

There’s a lot to like about the Ravens; great defense, potential on offense – they are primed to finally get over the Steeler hurdle. We know they will continue to have epic battles with their division rivals but I won’t believe in them going the distance until I see it. Negative whispers about Joe Flacco will grow into screams this season if the young QB doesn’t take it to the next level.

3. Cleveland Browns

Browns’ fans must be excited about their young budding team in 2011.  Colt McCoy showed he could play on the professional level last season and looks to progress more this year.  But with a new coaching staff in place, a lack of a true offseason and young players I don’t expect the Browns to excel this season. They will be an improved team though.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincy looks like they are totally in rebuilding mode. The team purged a few veterans, most notably Chad Ochocinco , and is looking to give fresh faces a chance to represent the organization. 2011 draft picks Andy Dalton and A.J. Green should see a ton of playing time. This could possibly be an old 2 – 3 win “Bungal” season.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans

I am not totally confident in picking the Texans to win the division; it is almost a pick by default.  The Texans are one of those teams that I don’t believe in their success until I see it. This talented offensive team added Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator to steward one of the league’s most porous defenses. There should be a vast improvement on that side ball. Mix that with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson & Arian Foster on offense and that should spell many victories for the Texans.  Will they live up to their potential?

2. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a difficult team to read with Peyton Manning’s neck injury; no one knows just how long he will be out of the lineup. I’m one to believe that even with a healthy Manning, the Colts are beginning to decline. His absence will only accelerate the Colts slide. Hopefully, he won’t miss many games.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

I was all ready to pick the Jaguars to win the AFC South and then they cut David Garrard. By no means was Garrard lighting up the league but I think this cost saving move just "cost" the Jags their season.  They still have good players on this team particularly Maurice Jones-Drew but I feel that Garrard was the right guy to lead the Jags to a division title. Hopefully rookie Blaine Gabbert will take over the reins soon and give Jacksonville the value they are looking for.

4. Tennessee Titans

Although the Titans have some gifted players on offense and defense, I think they have gone through too many changes in key areas (head coach, quarterback) to have a winning season. By no means do I think they will be doormats but I do foresee a bit of a struggle for them. Coming over from Seattle, Matt Hasselbeck looks to give the offense stability along with dynamic running back Chris Johnson. They’ll be competitive just not victorious.

AFC WEST

1. San Diego Chargers

Last year the Chargers led the league in offense and defense but failed to make the playoffs. That will not be the case this season. San Diego is the most talented team in the AFC West and this year they will benefit from it.  Phillip Rivers is as good as they come at the QB position and he’ll have Vincent Jackson to throw to all season unlike he did last year. The Chargers will miss Darren Sproles (now on the Saints) but I expect them to still make strides this year. They are championship contenders.

2. Oakland Raiders

I like the Oakland Raiders and I think they will build on their success from last season. A little stability for Jason Campbell should help him be more consistent on the field. The Raiders certainly are keeping their fingers crossed that Darren McFadden can repeat his on field performance from a season ago. While I don’t expect the Raiders to sweep the division again, I do expect them to battle for a Wild Card spot.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Defending AFC West champion Chiefs snuck up on a few folks last year; that won’t be the case this season. Jamaal Charles should have another outstanding season and like the Raiders, the Chiefs will probably battle for a Wild Card spot.  Although I can see a winning season from KC I think they will miss the post season this year.

4.  Denver Broncos

While I think holding on to Kyle Orton was the right move, I don’t think he will be able to steer the Broncos to a successful season this year. I like that the Broncos hired John Fox as their new head coach and I think he will help make Denver competitive.  Fox’s defensive brilliance should lift up an already talented defense that was decimated by injuries last year, particularly Elvis Dumervil who returns after missing the entire 2010 season. Also  rookie Von Miller should immediately help this defense.  The Broncos will make the division tougher than most anticipate as they should battle and finish near an 8 – 8 record.