AFC DIVISIONAL MATCHUPS
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos (- 9.5)
The Ravens (#4 seed) are riding into Denver high off of their emotional victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Though they didn't look their best, the Ravens still kept the Colts in check. Ravens RB Ray Rice uncharacteristically fumbled twice, something he just can not afford to do against the Broncos (#1 seed). Denver, who has been riding high in the "Mile High" themselves, come off of a bye and 11 straight victories. During that streak, led by MVP candidate QB Peyton Manning, the Broncos have won by at least a touchdown in each contest and has scored an average of 31 points a game. That spells trouble for the Ravens' defense which has been porous this season. Cold temperatures and an emotional lift surrounding the impending retirement of LB Ray Lewis may help the Ravens' defense but I think that Baltimore will need to run the ball a lot (and execute their short passing game) to limit Mr. Manning's touches. QB Joe Flacco & Co. had better take their sweet time out there on offense, unless of course, they are down quickly. When the Ravens' offense is right, it can have explosive games with Flacco. Also, this squad is a road playoff, battle tested team. But I don't think it's wise for them to get into a shootout with Denver. Besides, the Broncos defense is one of the most underrated in the NFL. The divisional round is hard to predict at times because of the teams coming off a bye and it's possible the week off my derail the Broncos stride. But I don't think the bye, the Lewis factor or anything else will get in Denver's way. The Broncos end the Ravens' season and Ray Lewis' career but they will not cover the 9.5.
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (-9.5)
The Texans (#3 seed) roll into Foxboro off of their Wild Card Round win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Texans did what they had to do to win that game but they weren't impressive at all. Houston is a talented team but something has gone awry with them starting with the Week 14 beatdown they endured at the hands of the Patriots (#2 seed). The Pats undressed the Texans on Monday Night Football, yet another high stakes nationally televised game that they wilted. That game prompted me to give them the nickname "SNL" for Saturday Night Live. SNL's original cast members were once known to be the "Not Ready For Primetime Players". SNL has a chance to begin to ditch that nickname with a "revenge" win against the Patriots. Like Baltimore, Houston should rely on their run and short pass game to eat clock on offense. The less time New England QB Tom Brady has with the ball, the better for the Texans. Also I thought the Bengals ran successfully against Houston but didn't stick with it for some reason. I doubt Patriots' head coach Bill Belichick will let that opportunity/advantage slip away. Like the Ravens, when the Texans offense is clicking they can be very dangerous. But their switch seems to be "off" and I can't see how they will flip it "on" in New England. The Patriots have been vulnerable at home in the playoffs in recent years but I don't see them losing this week. "Live from New England, it's Saturday Night!" and the Not Ready For Primetime Players will hit the stage (even though it's actually Sunday). The Patriots will run RB Stevan Ridley wild and open up the play action to hit their talented receiving/tight end ensemble down field. Patriots win and cover.
NFC DIVISIONAL MATCHUPS
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)
The Packers (#3 seed) come into this game against the 49ers (#2 seed) after dusting off the Minnesota Vikings (who played their 2nd string QB due to Christian Ponder's injured arm) last week. The "backup" quarterback they will be facing this week though will be a little more prepared than Vikings QB Joe Webb was last week. Unlike Webb, 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick has taken several snaps this season. In fact Kaepernick isn't really the backup QB anymore; he has started the last eight games of the season for San Fran. Though he has had some struggles, Kaepernick has also looked quite dynamic at times. The 49ers have averaged 26 points a game since Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith behind center. The offense still relies on a steady run game with RB Frank Gore but has now opened up the downfield threat with WR Michael Crabtree. The Packers pass offense is as dangerous as ever with QB Aaron Rodgers leading the way. But the name of this game I think will be defense and the 49ers have one of the best units in the NFL. San Francisco's defense is stout; they play mean and they tackle well. If they get the Packers into a one dimensional passing offense, Green Bay could be in for a long day. Ultimately, I do think the 49ers defense will neutralize the Packers offense. The Packers defense will have to deal with that balanced Niners offense and I think San Fran will have some opportunities to score some points against them. This game could be close but it has the makings of getting ugly too. Niners rush into the NFC Championship game by sending home the Pack and they cover too.
Seatlle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
The Seahawks (#5 seed) fly into Atlanta soaring after their defeat of RGIII and the Washington Redskins in the Wild Card Round. Seattle has become the so called "sexy pick" of a lot of prognosticators to win the Super Bowl because of their tough defense, excellent run game and the unflinching leadership of rookie QB Russell Wilson. Wilson was the only rookie QB to survive Wild Card Weekend. But he and the "Hawks will face a Falcons (#1 seed) team who has a LOT to prove. Atlanta's quick exits out of the playoffs the last 3 years has placed doubts in the minds of scores of folks outside of the 404/770 area code. Despite their 13 - 3 record and home field advantage, many people expect the Falcons to nose dive again in these playoffs. I have to admit that I am one of those people. I took a chance on the Falcons last year and picked them to win Wild Card Weekend even though they had to go on the road to play the New York Giants. They flew north and laid an egg. I'm not jumping with them this time around. This team has good talent on both sides of the ball. Roddy White and Julio Jones are arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL. Out on routes with them is future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez. RB Michael Turner has seen his touches drop over the last couple of years but is still capable of getting the job done. QB Matt Ryan is a good quarterback but is he your championship QB? You rarely hear his nickname "Matty Ice" any more....... On defense, the Falcons also have some really good players like Sean Weatherspoon, John Abraham, Asante Samuel and Thomas DeCoud. But for some reason come playoff time, it doesn't happen for the "Dirty Birds". After seeing how the Carolina Panthers handled the Falcons this year, (they split games but the Panthers should have won the game in Atlanta early in the season) I think the Seahawks can beat them. Although Wilson is not exactly like Cam Newton, their attributes are similar. With the help of RB Marshawn Lynch, Wilson should be able to find some holes in the Atlanta D on play action. This game I think will be close. Boy, Atlanta has a lot of pride on the line and a huge monkey on their back. That monkey will get even bigger when the Seahawks win the "Battle of the Birds". Seattle wins outright and have the spread to spare.
The playoff intensity should really pick up this weekend as these matches will determine the Final Four. Will we see another Brady vs. Manning playoff matchup? Will the Seahawks and 49ers meet for the third time this season, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line? We shall indeed see but you better believe the Ravens, Texans, Packers and Falcons all have different ideas about the Conference Championships! Let's just hope these games truly are more entertaining than last week's set.
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