Alright!!! Did you enjoy Wild Card Weekend? Three wild card teams advanced and the only division winner to move on was the 7 - 9 Seattle Seahawks. Yep, that's the same team who a lot of folks thought had no business in the post season. And what do you know? They beat the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints! The Saints loss, coupled with the Indianapolis Colts losing to the New York Jets, will guarantee that two new teams will be represented in Super Bowl XLV. Wild Card Weekend also saw the Green Bay Packers defeat the Philadelphia Eagles to end Michael Vick's magical season and the Baltimore Ravens club the Kansas City Chiefs. Now let's look at this weekend's NFL Divisional Playoff matchups!
The first game up will be the hardest to predict. This game could truly go either way. The Baltimore Ravens travel to Heinz Field to play the Pittsburgh Steelers (-3). There is nothing about this matchup that probably hasn't already been expressed. These old AFC North rivals know each other very well. I like to think of them as twin brothers because they are (and look) so much alike. If someone mentions a team from a cold blue-collar city, that plays strong defense, relies on their running game and is tough as nails, they could very well be talking about either the Steelers or the Ravens. They both won a game against each other by 3 points in the regular season. I think the difference in this game will be the quarterbacks. I have to give the edge to Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been impressive in his short career in the playoffs but I trust Roethlisberger to make more plays in this game. It will be the first time the home team wins in this matchup this year. Steelers win and give the three points - it will probably be a push!
The late game on Saturday features the Green Bay Packers vs. the Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons will be coming off the bye that they earned by being the #1 seed in the NFC. They have gained the reputation of being (somewhat) unbeatable at home. The "Dirty Birds" were 7 - 1 in the Dome this season; one of those 7 wins was against the Packers. The Packers almost came out of Atlanta with a win, losing in the last seconds on a field goal. This game will probably be close again. The Falcons will rely on their solid running game and play action passing on offense. The Packers defense, who must feel relieved that Falcons QB Matt Ryan doesn't have Michael Vick's elusiveness,should be up to challenge. On offense, the Packers passing game has been slightly off the last couple of weeks, but last week they rediscovered their running game. RB James Starks was carrying the rock against the Eagles like he was Ryan Grant. If the Pack can get their running game going like that again, they should win. If they become too one dimensional and have to pass all game, that will open the door for the Falcons. The Falcons defense can get after the quarterback and if there is no run threat, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers could be forced into making a lot of mistakes. On the other hand, the Pack's passing game can be lethal and I'm not sure if the Falcons secondary will be able to keep up all of their wide outs. I expect to see a lot of points scored in this game and I think Green Bay will prevail. Take the Packers and the 2.5 points.
Sunday kicks off with the Seahawks visiting the Chicago Bears (-10). Here we go again with the Seahawks; they are a double digit underdog again but I think they have a little more respect this week. Again, they are in a position of having nothing to lose, so their level of pressure should not be through the roof. They come into Chicago with a lot of confidence after their big win last week and their three point defeat of the Bears at Soldier Field in Week 6. The Bears are coming off of a bye and are not getting a lot love from the experts as a possible Super Bowl contender (see http://klassybreeze.blogspot.com/2011/01/theyre-not-who-we-thought-they-were.html ). The Bears defense will not allow all of the yardage and points that the Saints did last week. If their offensive line allow their skilled players to make plays, this could be a long afternoon for the Seahawks. If the Bears offensive line crumbles, that will be Seattle's window of opportunity (sacks & turnovers). I think the Bears will win but I don't feel comfortable giving 10 points.
Last matchup of the weekend is the New York Jets returning to Foxboro, the scene of their worst beat down of the year, to face the New England Patriots (-9). The #1 AFC seed Patriots have looked fantastic for most of the season. Head coach Bill Belichick is the master of the game plan and he has had two weeks to prepare for his division rival. The last time these two teams met, the Jets were thoroughly embarrassed 45 - 3. Patriots QB Tom Brady picked their defense apart and conversely, Jets QB Mark Sanchez couldn't get any type of rhythm on offense. There are a lot of justifiable reasons why most people are picking the Patriots to win this game. It looks like a slam dunk on paper. But my gut tells me Gang Green is going to go into Gillette Stadium and shock the world. Their defense will play better and their offense will be more consistent. They will knock out Peyton Manning and Brady in consecutive weeks. Rex Ryan gets to brag for another week. I'm taking the Jets in a big upset and the 9 points.
So if my predictions are right, we will see the Packers travel to Chicago to play the Bears in the NFC Championship and the Steelers host the Jets in the AFC Championship. Who are your picks to move on to the conference championships?
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